Designing a path to Carbon Neutrality

How I built emissions forecasts, scenario models and a phased mitigation portfolio under uncertainty

Overview

I led a three-person interdisciplinary team to design a long-term carbon neutrality strategy for an organization that already had three years of emissions data but lacked a decision framework. I built the emissions forecasts, uncertainty analysis and project prioritization model that allowed leadership to decide where to invest, when, and with what climate impact.

Challenges

The organization had emissions data, but it was inconsistent, uncertain and not connected to decision-making. Leadership did not know which sources mattered most, which projects would actually reduce emissions, or how to sequence investments over the next 15 year

My Role

Cleaning and validating emissions data
Building the 2039 emissions forecast model
Designing the mitigation portfolio logic
Prioritizing projects under cost, impact and feasibility constraints
Translating technical analysis into an investment roadmap

Methodology

1. Data grounding & uncertainty control

I reviewed three years of emissions data, challenged assumptions, and aligned the datasets with the organization and the consulting team to establish a reliable baseline.

2. Long-term emissions modeling

I built a 2039 emissions projection model in Python, incorporating growth, efficiency trends and uncertainty ranges to expose risks and tipping points.